During the past four-plus years investment specialists have been telling their tales of an upcoming financial collapse to a fearful public. These tales are often sewn into visions of a world-wide, economic nightmare. I’ve unsuccessfully tried to find some resource that discusses similar maladies without having a sales scheme buried within its agenda. I’m fairly convinced there is no such thing as a ‘pure’ analysis of events that could disturb the continuity of the world. Everybody, it seems has an agenda.
Economists ply their wares behind an agenda laden with confusing economic terms that do more to isolate than engage the reader. One would expect some form of rational, scientific dialogue flowing from a community of learned economists. Instead, economic discussions route the reader through a myriad of opinionated probabilities, each clearly driven by the individual economist’s agenda. Of all the sciences associated with economic theory, one would expect some reasonable degree of purity from economists. There is none. The economic opinions of these ‘experts’ varies from unrestrained negativity to unrealistic optimism. I finally made the decision that regardless of how profound the supporting data, there isn’t an economist alive that really has the slightest notion as to the horrible economic depths the world can sag into - under the right circumstances – and since economists are poor story tellers, they must project their dire future economic models using Orwellian antics - “If you can’t dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bullshit.” Economists have essentially become the purveyors of doom used by investment strategists to convince the public, “It’s time to invest”. Both of these disciplines rely upon the notion of fear to motivate prospective customers. I say ‘notion’, because when the inconsistencies in their messages are distilled to their foundational components there can and will be no economic collapse. Let’s examine this for a moment. If, as is suggested, the world falls into economic turmoil the question to be answered is: What will happen to the nations and the markets that have thus far propped-up capitalism i.e. investing? Are we to suppose that the collapse of a nation and its economic system will have no long-term effect upon investors? According to economists and investment strategists this is not only the most likely scenario, it is “THE ONLY scenario”. Suppose, for instance, the United States suffers major economic collapse. Those who choose to believe that such a scenario is economically survivable must also believe that the effects of such a scenario would not span the spectrum of socio-political forces. This perspective imparts invincibility to the economic realm that is quite obviously not shared by other aspects of a nation. We are asked to believe that whole nations, indeed the world, can implode into economic chaos without the world’s markets sustaining equal, debilitating destruction. Investors are told that with the right scheme they will survive the ‘coming economic collapse’. It is at this point that my analysis of these marketing schemes hits a wall of logical constraints. I simply cannot grasp the concept that life will go on as usual following an economic collapse. Regardless of the scheme, or the schemer, the plans and proposals allegedly geared towards surviving an economic collapse are useless: When a major economic collapse occurs all of the mechanisms propping-up our economic freedoms – society, law and order, personal responsibility - will vanish. When that occurs, the finest portfolio in the world will have no value to its holder save the BTUs it emits when set afire. Incomplete logic is more dangerous than no logic at all. Consider the fool who believes his entire house could burn to the ground, all contents except the dollar bills he has safely hidden in his wife’s wooden China cabinet reduced to ashes. There is something oddly illogical about that thinking. Or the braggart who believes he has the perfect plan to survive a direct hit from a nuclear blast. Men such as these are marvels of incomplete logic and would do better stuffing their frontal lobes into a freezer for a few decades until the world digresses to the limited intellect of the Dark Ages. Economists and investors neatly avoid one solemn truth within their fear-laden messages: When the world-wide economy collapse there is no portfolio, or portfolios, that will insulate you from the liabilities to follow. Years ago I was approached by an insurance salesman who sold specialized policies relating specifically to cancer. The salesman’s scheme was quite simple: Scare people to death then offer them the unique solution for their fears. After introducing himself, the salesmen assiduously interwove stories relating to the economic tragedies families suffered as a consequence of one of its members acquiring cancer. “Bankruptcy’, ‘divorce’, ‘poverty’, ‘DEATH’ – The salesman used all of these terms to describe the horrible outcomes of an ‘uninsured’ family. He knew, however, that most of his prospective clients heard only one word: Death. More important to his sales scheme, however, was the method he used to finalize the need for a prospective client to purchase his policy. “This policy will protect you and your family from cancer,” he’d say. In fact, his policy did nothing of the sort. What it did do was offer some financial relief to a family who has a member suffering from cancer. Of course, what the salesman’s clients heard was, “This policy means you won’t get cancer – Because you’re protected!” I brought this ‘minor’ issue up with the salesman. He admitted the wording was carefully selected to leave the appearance that the policy provided some magical benefit to the purchaser that would insulate him from cancer - The sin is in the details. By the way, I didn’t buy the policy. Who would? After being told one story after another about cancer’s fatal statistics I figured the lone option to any sane man who contacts cancer was a bullet and a prayer – That was twenty years ago. Obviously, successful cancer treatment has improved – along with the expense of that treatment, so I’ll bet that salesman is still making a ton of change “Protecting people from cancer”. The economists and investment strategists who allege to have a near ‘flawless’ scheme to “protect you and your family from an economic collapse” are plying their wares with the same incomplete logic used by the cancer salesman: Scare them then offer an illogical solution. We’re living in what can only be called a ‘disturbing period’ in history. The concept of personal and collective security is rapidly becoming a thing of the past. Many of us are truly disturbed by the extent of the dangerous events unfolding around the world. For many, that concern is being turned into magical schemes that may or may not have the character needed to insulate them from those events. Your response and preparations for any upcoming calamities are dependent upon your view of the world’s current condition and your belief that you can or cannot insulate yourself from any potential disorder. The spectrum of opinions relating to future events goes from ‘end of world scenarios’ to ‘minor corrections’. I have my own beliefs regarding the depth of madness the world may achieve when an economic collapse occurs. Those beliefs include an awareness of troubling, historical interludes and the current characteristics of a world seemingly determined to remanufacture or destroy itself. What ever is coming in the future will come – with or without my permission; nonetheless, those of us who choose to throw the gamut of all human affairs into the stew, including economic disturbances, understand that all aspects of human conduct will be markedly affected. For that reason, and many others, economists, economic strategists, investment strategists, and other ‘whiz-kid’ purveyors of economic survival will have to peddle their wares elsewhere. Frankly, I’m too occupied with the fullness of a troubled reality to focus on one of its parcels – Especially the one that will likely set-off all other disturbances. This, too, is one of the reasons economic survivalists are about to learn a hard lesson. I simply cannot fathom that a world gone mad will allow the cause of that madness to reinvigorate itself – When the complete picture is seen from its most logical perspective, all of the elements responsible for the world’s economic misery will either succumb to the implosion or be burned to the ground. When that happens do you honestly believe the portfolio you hold in your hand will actually survive the conflagration? If so, I know a guy who is selling an insurance policy that will protect you and your family from the upcoming economic collapse…..He’d love to sell you a policy.
